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As 2024 gets underway, the global auto industry stands on the edge of major transformation. In a recent Munro Live episode, Sandy Munro and Jordan Rocha sat down to reflect on the lessons of 2023 and to share key auto industry predictions for 2024. Their discussion touched on critical topics like EV adoption, vehicle engineering breakthroughs, corporate culture shifts, and manufacturing trends that will define the future of automotive technology.
Drawing on decades of teardown analysis, lean design expertise, and hands-on industry experience, Sandy offers a clear-eyed look at where automotive engineering is headed — and why he’s predicting 2024 will be a decisive year for OEMs, investors, technology developers, and the auto industry as a whole.
Lessons from 2023: Foundation for Future Disruption
The auto industry in 2023 experienced both tremendous innovation and visible tension. Electric vehicle (EV) adoption continued to rise, yet some North American automakers scaled back EV investments, pressured by Wall Street’s short-term thinking. Meanwhile, technological innovation exploded, with Tesla, BYD, and Chinese OEMs leading the way in deploying new manufacturing methods and EV architectures.
Sandy emphasized that consumer expectations are rising. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), autonomy features, and new regulatory demands from agencies like NHTSA are putting unprecedented pressure on automotive engineers and designers to deliver smarter, safer, and more efficient vehicles.
As Sandy put it, “2024 will be a watershed year” — one where companies either pivot to meet the demands of a changing auto industry market or fall irreversibly behind.
Ford’s Strong Position — and the Dealership Hurdle
One bright spot among traditional automakers is Ford. Under Jim Farley’s leadership, Ford has shown a strong grasp of market dynamics, maintaining the F-150 as the top-selling vehicle while expanding into EVs with the F-150 Lightning. Sandy credited Farley’s team for understanding customer needs and avoiding costly missteps that plague slower-moving OEMs.
However, a major headwind for Ford and others is dealership resistance. Many dealers oppose selling EVs due to lower service revenue — no oil changes, fewer repairs, and less post-sale maintenance mean tighter margins. As Sandy warns, dealership reluctance could undercut OEM strategies if not properly managed.
“If the dealership tail wags the dog,” Sandy said, “the dog will die.”
Cybertruck: A Technological Leap Forward
Sandy’s firsthand experience driving the Tesla Cybertruck left a major impression. Thanks to steer-by-wire technology and four-wheel steering, the Cybertruck handles like a compact vehicle, despite its size. The responsiveness at low speeds and stability at high speeds offers a glimpse of what future vehicles could become when traditional mechanical linkages are replaced with smarter, electronic systems.
Tesla’s calibration of the Cybertruck’s steering and tactile feedback set a new standard for engineering excellence. Sandy noted that steer-by-wire offers tremendous design advantages, including:
- Weight reduction
- Crash safety improvements (no steering column impalement risk)
- Faster AI-assisted accident avoidance
- Simpler, more modular assembly
Tesla’s decision to integrate steer-by-wire with a full Ethernet vehicle network and a 48V electrical architecture represents a systems-level redesign — not just a tweak. These changes cut wiring, reduce complexity, boost reliability, and lower manufacturing costs, all key principles of lean manufacturing.
In Sandy’s teardown analysis philosophy, the Cybertruck represents “the right engineering done the right way.”
48V and Ethernet: The New Industry Standard
Sandy has long advocated for 48V systems, and Tesla’s move validates that position. Compared to legacy 12V architectures, 48V reduces wire gauge dramatically, improving efficiency and cutting vehicle weight — a crucial factor for range and performance in EVs.
Pairing 48V with an Ethernet ring architecture reduces the number of bulky control modules, replacing outdated multiplexing systems. The result? Faster communication, simpler assembly, fewer failure points, and massive cost savings over the vehicle lifecycle.
Sandy predicts that by 2028, any vehicle still running a 12V backbone will be considered obsolete. In fact, Tesla released their 48V design guide to accelerate auto industry adoption, a move Sandy called “industry-changing generosity.”
Gigacasting: Reinventing Vehicle Manufacturing
Gigacasting — the use of giant structural castings instead of assembling dozens of stamped parts — is another Tesla innovation spreading rapidly. Companies like Ford, Hyundai, Honda, and numerous Chinese automakers are now investing heavily in large casting machines.
Gigacasting improves structural integrity, reduces part counts, speeds up assembly, and slashes tooling and labor costs. It’s a classic example of lean manufacturing principles applied at scale. Sandy emphasized that the shift to castings isn’t just about technology — it’s about changing corporate psychology to embrace smarter, faster methods.
Chinese Competition: BYD and Beyond
Sandy reiterated an auto industry prediction he made years ago: BYD will eventually become the world’s largest automaker, surpassing Toyota and Volkswagen. While Tesla still sold more EVs than BYD in 2023 overall, BYD overtook Tesla in Q4 — a sign of momentum building.
Chinese OEMs like BYD and Geely now produce affordable, reliable, feature-rich EVs at a pace and scale that legacy automakers struggle to match. Sandy credits this not just to cost advantages, but to a relentless focus on manufacturing innovation, quality control, and rapid product iteration.
Just as Japanese automakers disrupted the American market in the 1970s and 1980s, Sandy believes Chinese automakers will do the same in the next few years — especially if American consumers demand cheaper, better vehicles and politicians respond to public pressure.
The Battery Wars: Sodium-Ion and New Extraction Methods
Batteries remain the costliest component of EVs. However, emerging technologies like sodium-ion batteries and innovative lithium extraction methods (such as those pioneered by EnergyX and Exxon) could dramatically cut costs.
If sodium-ion batteries reach mass production, EV prices could fall sharply, making them even more competitive with internal combustion vehicles. Likewise, cheaper, more sustainable lithium extraction methods will boost global battery supply without environmental devastation.
Sandy argues that cheaper batteries will remove one of the last major hurdles to mass EV adoption. The OEMs that capitalize first will gain a major strategic advantage.
Robotics and AI: Revolutionizing Manufacturing Lines
Sandy also shared his excitement about next-generation humanoid robots entering production lines. New robot models, featuring silicon fingers, 360-degree vision, and agile movement, could replace human labor in dirty, dangerous, and repetitive jobs.
These advanced robots will:
- Increase factory safety
- Slash labor costs
- Improve production quality
- Enable “lights-out” manufacturing operations
Although unions may resist, Sandy believes the economics are inevitable. Companies that embrace robotics will be able to outcompete rivals on cost and quality, much like companies that first adopted lean manufacturing principles decades ago.
Prediction Takeaways for the 2024 Auto Industry
- Prioritize 48V architecture and Ethernet wiring: Achieve major weight, cost, and reliability gains.
- Adopt gigacasting early: Cut assembly costs and streamline vehicle production.
- Monitor Chinese OEMs closely: Prepare competitive strategies now, not later.
- Invest in battery innovation: Sodium-ion and low-cost lithium extraction will redefine vehicle economics.
- Implement robotics wisely: Early movers will dominate future lean manufacturing environments.
- Change internal corporate culture: Psychology, not just technology, will determine future winners and losers.
Final Thoughts: A Critical Year for the Industry
As Sandy concluded, “2024 will separate the innovators from the followers.” OEMs that embrace technology, rethink outdated corporate mindsets, and execute lean, cost-effective manufacturing strategies will thrive. Those auto makers that resist change — clinging to dealership models, old wiring standards, and obsolete production methods — risk irrelevance.
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In an industry where every gram, every dollar, and every second counts — lean design wins.